Iran Crisis Situation Assessment

Operation Epic Fury (28 February 2026 — ongoing)

On 28 February 2026, the United States and Israel launched coordinated military strikes against Iran under the US codename “Operation Epic Fury.” The strikes targeted military, nuclear, and political infrastructure across Tehran, Isfahan, Qom, Karaj, and Kermanshah.

Key outcomes of the initial strikes:

• Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed when his compound in Tehran was destroyed
• Nuclear sites struck: Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant (entrance buildings damaged, confirmed by IAEA), Isfahan nuclear complex, Minzadehei (covert weapons development site northeast of Tehran), and Lavisan 2/Mojdeh complex
• The IAEA confirmed no radiological effects from strikes on Natanz, though the main underground facility was not penetrated
• More than 1,000 people killed in the initial strikes (Iran’s Health Ministry later reported 1,200+ civilians killed and ~10,000 wounded as of 9 March) and hundreds of thousands of travellers stranded in the initial days
• Multiple members of the Khamenei family were also killed in the compound strike, including Mojtaba Khamenei’s son (a grandson of Ali Khamenei), Mojtaba’s wife Zahra Haddad-Adel, Khamenei’s daughter Hoda Khamenei, son-in-law Mesbah Bagheri Kani, and other family members (Fars News Agency)
• Seven US service members killed in Iranian retaliatory strikes: six Army reservists died when a drone struck a port in Kuwait on 1 March; a seventh soldier died on 8 March from injuries sustained at a military base in Saudi Arabia. Eighteen additional US service members seriously injured (NPR, NBC News, CNN)
• On 4 March, a US submarine sank the IRIS Dena, Iran’s most modern Moudge-class frigate, in the Indian Ocean approximately 40 nautical miles off Sri Lanka. The vessel had 180 crew aboard (Army Recognition)

Diplomatic context leading to strikes

• On 20 February, President Trump gave Iran a 10-day deadline to reach a deal
• On 25 February, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated a “historic” agreement was “within reach”
• Three rounds of indirect talks mediated by Oman in Geneva had not produced a breakthrough
• UN Security Council reimposed sanctions on Iran in September 2025 after determining “significant non-performance” of nuclear obligations
• IAEA had been denied access to Iran’s enrichment stockpiles for 8+ months (since June 2025)
• 400kg of 60% enriched uranium (near weapons-grade) was unaccounted for

Iran launched retaliatory missile and drone strikes against US-allied countries and bases across the region, including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, and Turkey.

UAE-specific strike data (by 4 March 2026)

• 189 ballistic missiles launched at UAE
• 941 drone attacks
• 3 cruise missiles
• Interceptions: 161 of 174 ballistic missiles intercepted, 13 fell into the sea; all 8 cruise missiles intercepted; 645 of 689 drones intercepted, 44 caused impact
• Casualties: 4 killed, 112 injured (as of 8 March)
• Updated totals (by 9 March): UAE authorities had detected 253 ballistic missiles and 1,440 drones total, with 4 deaths and 117 injuries

Damage to Dubai landmarks and infrastructure

• Debris from missile interceptions damaged Burj Al Arab hotel (fire)
• Shahed-type drone struck near Fairmont The Palm Hotel on Palm Jumeirah — large explosion and fire
• Fire at Jebel Ali Port attributed to debris from “aerial interception”
• Dubai International Airport (DXB) temporarily closed; passengers directed to bomb shelters
• AWS data centre in mec1-az2 reported on fire after being struck
• A motorist was killed by falling debris after an interception in Dubai on 7 March

UAE Air Defense Performance

• UAE relied heavily on US-supplied THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) system
• Iran specifically targeted THAAD radar systems in UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan
• Satellite imagery showed strike marks on THAAD battery buildings near Al-Sadder and Al Ruwais, UAE
• Iran claimed to have destroyed THAAD radar in UAE
• Despite damage to some radar infrastructure, the overall interception rate was high (92%+ for ballistic missiles)

The Strait of Hormuz has experienced effective closure since 28 February 2026.

Key data points:

• IRGC issued warnings prohibiting vessel passage
• Tanker traffic dropped ~70% initially, then collapsed to ~90% reduction by 10 March
• Over 150 ships anchored outside the strait to avoid risks
• Major container lines (Maersk, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd) suspended transits
• On 5–6 March, Iran announced a selective reopening — barring ships linked to the US, Israel, and Western allies while declaring the strait open to others (Iran International). In practice, the operational effect was limited as most international shippers continued to refuse transit due to insurance costs and safety concerns
• Oil prices surpassed $100/barrel; Brent peaked near $119.50 intraday on 8 March (CNBC reported ‘nearly hitting $120’) — highest in four years
• ~20% of world’s daily oil supply affected
• Cargo being rerouted through Salalah (Oman), Yanbu (Saudi Arabia), or around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope (adding weeks to delivery times)
• On 10 March, US said it destroyed Iranian naval ships and minelayers near the Strait, suggesting US operations to reopen the waterway

Timeline

• 28 February: Emirates suspended all flights to/from Dubai until further notice
• 1–2 March: 11,000+ flights cancelled across the Middle East
• 3 March: Emirates began operating “limited number of flights” — urged passengers not to go to airport unless notified
• 3 March: Emirates operating at “more than 50% flight capacity”
• 7 March: Emirates suspended flights again amid new missile threats, then resumed
• 8 March: Emirates operated 284 flights (vs. 500+ pre-war daily)
• 10 March: DXB and DWC operating with limited flights; airlines gradually restoring schedules

Regional disruption

• All GCC states experienced simultaneous airspace closures
• Disruption during Ramadan season — expected losses of $40 billion for tourism across region
• Virgin Atlantic resumed London-Dubai route on 4 March
• Multiple European and Asian carriers adjusted or suspended Gulf services

Stock Market

• UAE exchanges halted trading for two days after strikes began
• When markets reopened, DFM benchmark index fell 4.7% — worst day since May 2022
• DFM Real Estate Index fell 20% in five sessions, wiping out all 2025 gains

Real Estate

• Fitch Ratings predicted prices falling as much as 15%
• Off-plan and secondary market activity disrupted
• Analysts expect short-term uncertainty but debate long-term impact

Tourism & Hospitality

• Hotel bookings plummeting across GCC
• Regional airspace closures during Ramadan season
• Expected tourism losses of $40 billion across GCC

Broader Economy

• Brent Crude rose from ~$70 to over $110/barrel within days (peaked near $119.50 intraday on 8 March per CNBC)
• UAE-Iran bilateral trade ($27–28B annually) effectively frozen
• Estimated billions in losses for Emirates airline
• Dubai Duty Free and airport-related revenue heavily impacted

• Charter companies reporting demand for private jets far exceeds available capacity
• Security firm had 7 corporate clients (large finance and consulting firms) looking to evacuate 1,000–3,000 employees
• Wealthy Asian investors “frantically calling wealth managers in Singapore” asking how to move assets out
• Dubai is home to 237 centimillionaires ($100M+) and 20+ billionaires — all at risk of departing
• India evacuated at least 52,000 nationals from the Gulf by air
• BlackRock reported as facing redemption pressures from Gulf-based funds

• Ali Khamenei killed 28 February in compound strike
• IRGC immediately attempted to appoint successor, bypassing Assembly of Experts
• Online Assembly of Experts meeting held 3 March under IRGC pressure
• Mojtaba Khamenei (son of Ali Khamenei) named new Supreme Leader on 8 March
• Mojtaba has never held elected office; deep ties to IRGC
• Dynastic succession is unprecedented and weakens religious legitimacy
• Funeral postponed after Israel threatened to kill successor
• Real power likely lies with IRGC regardless of formal Supreme Leader

Saudi Arabia

• Explicitly confirmed to Iran it would NOT allow airspace for strikes — attacked anyway
• Intensifying direct diplomatic backchannel with Iran
• First fatalities: Indian and Bangladeshi nationals killed by military projectile
• Yanbu port (Red Sea coast) emerging as alternative shipping route outside Hormuz

Oman

• Hosted February negotiations that failed to prevent war
• Foreign Minister expressed “dismay” and called for UNSC meeting
• Urged US “not to get sucked in further”
• Salalah port receiving diverted shipping from Hormuz closure
• Maintaining strict neutrality to preserve mediation credibility

Qatar

• Summoned Iranian ambassador; issued “strong condemnation” of attacks
• Al Udeid Air Base (largest US base in region) targeted by Iranian strikes
• Prioritising de-escalation; leveraging relationships with Iran (shared gas field)
• Qatar Airways and Hamad International Airport capturing diverted Gulf aviation traffic

Turkey

• Missile landed in Dortyol, Hatay Province — NATO Secretary-General Rutte explicitly ruled out Article 5 invocation; Turkey did not invoke Article 4 (Anadolu Agency)
• Deployed F-16s and air defense to Northern Cyprus
• Ambiguous positioning: condemned retaliation but FM Fidan called Iranian strikes “legitimate self-defense”
• Istanbul Airport/Turkish Airlines actively capturing diverted DXB traffic

India

• Condemned Iranian retaliatory strikes; PM Modi spoke with Gulf leaders
• Evacuated at least 52,000 nationals from Gulf by air (March 1–7), with 32,107 on Indian carriers
• ~3.5M Indian nationals in UAE (largest expatriate community)
• 53% of India’s LNG imports transit Hormuz
• Indian Navy deployed Kolkata-class and Visakhapatnam-class guided-missile destroyers to the Arabian Sea and Gulf of Oman by 2 March to escort Indian-flagged merchant vessels (Business Today)
• Two Indian crew members killed when oil tanker Skylight was struck by a projectile north of Khasab, Oman on 1 March

Iraq

• Caught between US bases and Iranian militia influence on Iraqi territory
• Targeted by Iranian strikes on US military bases in Iraqi Kurdistan (Erbil)
• Iraqi Shia militias have actively joined the conflict: the Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed 23+ drone strikes on US assets in Erbil; Kataib Hezbollah, Saraya Awliya Al-Dam, and Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba announced they are joining the fighting (FDD Long War Journal)
• US embassy in Baghdad attacked on 7 March (Al Jazeera)
• US forces now primarily concentrated in Iraqi Kurdistan (Erbil International Airport) after withdrawing from most other parts of Iraq earlier in 2026

• E3 joint statement condemned Iranian retaliation but did NOT explicitly endorse US-Israeli strikes
• Macron: strikes “conducted outside the framework of international law”
• UK allowed US to use bases for “defensive strikes”; sent warship and anti-drone helicopters to Cyprus
• France sent frigate to Cyprus; authorised US to use French bases; sent “additional air defense assets”
• A drone hit the RAF Akrotiri base in Cyprus on 1 March; the UK MoD later determined it was likely launched by a pro-Iran militia from Lebanon (possibly Hezbollah), not from Iran directly (Middle East Eye)
• Europe deeply divided on response — Washington Post: “wary of wider conflict, European allies stress they didn’t join Iran strikes”

China

• Called for immediate ceasefire and resumption of talks
• Said strikes have “no UNSC authorization and violate international law”
• Wang Yi (top diplomat) denounced strikes and Khamenei assassination as “unacceptable” in call with Lavrov
• Has NOT offered concrete military help to Iran
• 40% of China’s oil imports transit Hormuz — strong interest in reopening
• Stopped short of sanctions on US or material support to Iran (same restraint as during June 2025 Israel strikes on Iran)
• Dispatched Special Envoy Zhai Jun to the Middle East on 4 March for mediation efforts, announced after Wang Yi calls with UAE and Saudi FMs (Bloomberg)

Russia

• Condemned strikes as “another unprovoked act of armed aggression”
• EU Council president António Costa called Russia “the only winner” of the war
• Benefits from elevated oil prices (funding Ukraine war effort)
• Coordinating with China at UNSC
• Arms supplier to Iran (S-300 systems, drone technology)
• Limited ability to project power into Gulf (focused on Ukraine)

• Houthis threatened to resume Red Sea shipping attacks on 28 February in response to war
• As of 10 March, attacks have NOT resumed — internal debate within Houthi leadership
• Houthis paused Red Sea attacks in early 2025 after Gaza ceasefire (October 2024)
• If resumed, would create DUAL CHOKEPOINT crisis: Hormuz (IRGC) + Red Sea (Houthis)
• Strait of Hormuz already in “effective closure” — adding Red Sea disruption would force all Gulf trade around Africa
• Fox News reported GPS jamming and maritime incidents in Strait of Hormuz area

• UAE-Iran bilateral trade: ~$27–28B annually (WTO data, 2024)
• Emirati exports to Iran: ~$22B (up fourfold since 2018 when US left JCPOA)
• Iranian shell companies operate in Dubai free zones to mask oil origins
• Iran uses “dark fleet” tankers to send oil to China, with payments in yuan via second-tier Chinese banks
• Estimated billions in Iranian assets held in UAE financial system
• UAE considering freezing Iranian assets (WSJ, 6 March)
• ~400,000 Iranians estimated living in UAE
• UAE crackdown on Iran’s “shadow network” reported by TRT World