Dubai Early Warning Dashboard — Iran Crisis Monitoring

Data confidence: [PUBLIC DATA] Verified open-source (97 indicators) [REQUIRES GOV DATA] Government sources needed (82 indicators) [ESTIMATED] Analytical estimate, +/-30% (47 indicators)

Master Variable — Crisis Duration

<30 days: Severe but recoverable recession with potential post-crisis rebound (S1 pathway). 30-60 days: Significant structural damage; competitive displacement crystallises; talent departure loop may activate. >60 days: Fundamental challenge to Dubai's economic model with multi-year recovery timeline.
Currently at Day 14 — C1/C2/C3 consensus: duration is the single most consequential variable.

Domain Overview

▲ Stabilisation Signals

Bloomberg reports reduced frequency of Iranian attacks on UAE (9 March) — limits departure acceleration [PUBLIC DATA]
Dolphin pipeline energy supply resilient — DEWA operations continue; no energy crisis despite Hormuz closure [PUBLIC DATA]
Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth backstop ($1.5T+) prevents sovereign default and currency crisis [PUBLIC DATA]
THAAD achieving 92%+ interception rate for ballistic missiles — physical safety floor holding [PUBLIC DATA]
Mediation channels remain open (Oman, Qatar) [PUBLIC DATA]

▼ Escalation Risks

Houthi Red Sea attack resumption creating dual-chokepoint scenario (CASCADE_05) — currently AMBER [PUBLIC DATA]
THAAD interceptor depletion or radar damage — satellite imagery shows strike marks; status unknown [REQUIRES GOV DATA]
Food reserve depletion approaching critical threshold (25-55 day effective reserve per C3; Day 14) [REQUIRES GOV DATA]
Banking NPL materialisation approaching (Day 21-45 per C3 revised timing) [ESTIMATED]
Talent departure approaching C3-revised tipping point (5-7% professional departure at Day 45 ≈ 14 April) [ESTIMATED]

Canary Indicator Spotlight — Top 5 Early Warning Signals

Indicator Detail by Domain

Escalation Protocol

Critical Data Gaps — Top 5 Unresolved Intelligence Requests

Scenario Calibration Context

This monitoring framework is calibrated against the four Module B scenarios produced by the intelligence briefing workflow. Amber and red thresholds use C3 stress-test revised estimates where C3 challenged C1 values — meaning thresholds trigger earlier and at lower magnitudes than initial assessments.

Key C3 revisions incorporated: GDP impact -5% to -9% (not C1's -1% to -3%); NPL forecast 9-13% (not 7-9%); talent departure tipping point 5-7% at 45 days (not 10% at 60 days); food reserves 25-55 days (not 30-90 days); free zone distress at 14-21 days (not 30 days).

Scenario pathways: S1 (Contained Escalation → De-escalation) remains achievable if conflict duration <30 days. S2 (Limited Escalation → Negotiated Settlement) is the current central case. S3 (Prolonged Conflict) and S4 (Regional Conflagration) thresholds are mapped to domain RED triggers, particularly Houthi dual-chokepoint activation (MS-04) and THAAD degradation (MS-02).